Our Notes
The status of the U.S./NATO relations
Geopolitics is dead due to Trump’s Board of Peace policies as well as abandoning the E.U., W.H.O., and now planning on pulling out of NATO.
President Donald Trump has indicated that he is strongly considering pulling the United States out of NATO, an alliance he has described as a “paper tiger.”
This stance is not new, as he has expressed similar beliefs for an extended period, suggesting that Europe should increase its responsibility for its own security.
The idea of withdrawal has gained traction following allies’ perceived failure to support U.S. operations against Iran.
Despite Trump’s intentions, a 2023 law, the National Defense Reauthorization Act, was signed into law by then-President Joe Biden, preventing any U.S. president from unilaterally withdrawing the United States from NATO without congressional approval or a two-thirds vote by the Senate.
This legal requirement means that a formal withdrawal would involve a complex process, including a one-year grace period after official notification to the U.S. as the depositary state.
While a formal withdrawal requires congressional approval, the Trump administration has already begun to scale down its military commitments to NATO.
This includes the withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany, with plans for reductions in strategic bombers, fighter jets, drones, submarines, and warships dedicated to the alliance.
These actions are part of a broader shift in U.S. military focus towards other regions, such as the Indo-Pacific, and an effort to press European nations to increase their own defense spending.
China’s Role in the Iran War and NATO
China has played a role in diplomatic efforts concerning the Iran war, including helping to bring Iran to the negotiating table for a ceasefire.
China has been described as an unofficial mediator, emphasizing diplomacy and taking a cautious approach to regional security.
It reportedly exerted pressure on Iran to participate in negotiations in Pakistan, for which President Trump expressed gratitude.
China maintains significant economic ties with Iran, being its largest trading partner and importing a substantial portion of Iranian oil.
China has a vested interest in the stability of the Persian Gulf and in maintaining low oil prices and stable global trade, which drives its involvement in the conflict.
However, China’s engagement behind the scenes is characterized by limited overt political ownership, and it generally aims to avoid deep political commitments or becoming entangled in complex peace deals.
Concerns have been raised by the United States and its allies regarding China’s potential support for Iran through military aid, including shipments of shoulder-fired missiles and dual-use technology, as well as by purchasing sanctioned Iranian oil.
This support is seen as complicating diplomatic relations and raising concerns for regional balance and deterrence dynamics.
Despite these reports, China’s approach to Middle East geopolitics has been cautious since October 7th, 2025 (2 year anniversary of the attack on Israel by Hamas).
Perspectives
China as a Decisive Actor and Supporter of Iran
Some argue that China is a crucial enabler of Iran, having transplanted its nuclear weapons program onto Iranian soil through direct transfers and a nuclear black market, and has provided extensive support (diplomatic, economic, and military) for the war.
American intelligence agencies have information suggesting China may have sent a shipment of shoulder-fired missiles to Iran for its conflicts, and has allowed some companies to ship chemicals, fuel, and components for military production to Iran.
China aids Iran in evading U.S. sanctions and maintaining destabilizing activities, while Iran supplies China with low-cost oil and partners in undermining the U.S.-led global order.
China as a Cautious Mediator and Stakeholder
China has adopted a restrained posture, emphasizing diplomacy and providing indirect support to Iran, while refraining from overt military involvement to protect its oil imports.
China has a significant stake in Gulf stability and is highly exposed to the Strait of Hormuz, which motivates its efforts to de-escalate conflicts to ensure stable oil prices and global trade.
Despite diplomatic activity, Beijing has downplayed its role in brokering a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, aiming to avoid entanglement in complex peace deals.
Some analyses suggest China is not a decisive actor in the conflict, lacking the leverage or willingness to impose outcomes on primary belligerents, and behaves like a normal external power rather than a crisis manager.
NATO’s Stance and Trump’s Views on China and Iran
President Trump has expressed disappointment with NATO’s response to the Iran war, stating that many NATO countries are not interested in joining the conflict and that the alliance has not “helped at all.”
Spain’s prime minister urged China to play a leading role in resolving the Iran war, suggesting Beijing is uniquely positioned to de-escalate conflicts in the Middle
The U.S. has also focused its ire on Europe for withholding support for the war in Iran, with Trump reportedly calling NATO a “paper tiger” and considering withdrawal.
