Ukraine Fires U.S. Missiles Inside Russia

After which, Putin lowered the threshold for nuclear weapons use

via MXM News, MXM Exclusive, Tue Nov 19 2024

Quick Hit:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has lowered the threshold for nuclear weapons use, responding to Ukraine's first strike inside Russia with U.S.-supplied missiles. The updated doctrine broadens scenarios for nuclear retaliation, raising tensions in the ongoing conflict.

Key Details:

• Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine permits nuclear strikes against nonnuclear nations supported by nuclear-armed allies.

• Ukraine reportedly used American ATACMS missiles to strike a military facility in Bryansk, Russia.

• Putin’s changes align with earlier threats to retaliate against Western long-range missile use by Ukraine.

Diving Deeper:

Russian President Vladimir Putin formally updated his country’s nuclear doctrine on Tuesday, lowering the threshold for nuclear weapons use. The move comes just days after the Biden administration allowed Ukraine to employ U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles to strike within Russian territory, a significant escalation in the conflict.

The Kremlin announced that Moscow could now launch a nuclear strike in response to attacks by nonnuclear states that receive backing from nuclear powers. The update represents the Kremlin’s most aggressive nuclear posturing since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began nearly 1,000 days ago.

The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed that Ukraine used ATACMS missiles to target a military site in Bryansk, though it claimed its air defenses intercepted most of the missiles. While no casualties were reported, fragments caused a fire at the facility. Ukraine acknowledged the attack but did not specify the weapons involved.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov linked the doctrine’s update to changing geopolitical realities, blaming U.S. policy for heightening tensions. He emphasized that the use of nuclear weapons would remain a last resort but cautioned that strikes like Ukraine’s recent attack could prompt a nuclear response under the new guidelines.

The doctrine now broadens its definition of scenarios warranting nuclear retaliation. Previously reserved for existential threats to Russia, the updated policy includes attacks on Russian allies such as Belarus or aggression from nonnuclear states supported by nuclear powers.

The shift follows Washington’s loosening of restrictions on Ukrainian use of long-range weapons, which had been resisted by the Biden administration. However, concerns over North Korea’s support for Russian forces reportedly pushed the U.S. to approve limited strikes.

Putin’s latest move serves as a stark warning to NATO and a clear signal to Washington. By updating its nuclear policy, Russia seeks to deter further Western involvement in Ukraine while pressuring the U.S. to reconsider its military support.

Observers, such as political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya, suggest Putin may be positioning himself for negotiations if a future Trump administration reengages in peace talks. Meanwhile, current U.S. policy, she argued, risks edging the conflict closer to a catastrophic outcome.