Chronology of Events in Brazil
January 8,2022
Note: all the links in this post point to various English, Brazilian, and Russian language Telegram accounts, accounts which had covered the events live. Moraes is determined to block both Telegram and WhatsApp in Brazil - if you are in Brazil and find the links blocked, we highly suggest using ProtonVPN (they are based in Switzerland and abide by Swiss laws) - they have paid as well as free subscriptions.
On Sunday, January 8th 2023, the Brazilian capital was gripped with large-scale protests initiated by former president Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters, who in October 2022 lost the runoff election to Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva and did not admit the voting results.
Rallies of thousands of Bolsonaristas took place in all major cities in Brazil throughout the transition period from November 2022. Protesters actively called for the army intervention to support the former leader of the country, the dissolution of the National Congress and the Supreme Court of Brazil.
However, it was not until January 8 that peaceful protests turned into a full-scale riot against the new government. It ended with disorders and vandalism in the administrative center of Brasilia.
🔻Chronology of events
▪️ In the afternoon of January 8, it became known that the administrators of the protest channels of Bolsonaro's radical supporters had concluded an agreement to coordinate actions. A day before, 100 buses with 4,000 passengers arrived in the center of Brasilia.
▪️ At about 2:00 p.m. local time, an organized group of Bolsonaristas left the tent camp near the General Staff of the Army and headed toward Ministerial Square and the Praça dos Três Poderes.
▪️ At about 3 p.m., protesters tore down fences and stormed the grounds of the National Congress, the official residence of President Lula and the Supreme Court.
Federal District police offered no resistance to the crowd and only observed the situation. Ministers were urgently evacuated to safer locations and President Lula was transported to São Paulo.
Over the next 2 hours, a mob of Bolsonarists stormed the president's buildings, the parliament and the courthouse unimpeded. The situation inside the administrative center of Brasilia resembled the storming of the U.S. Capitol Building on January 6, 2021.
The choice of targets was not random: among the protesters Lula has a reputation for corruption, Congress for Bolsonaro's traitors, and the Supreme Court embodies the political enemy of the ex-president.
▪️ At about 5 p.m., military police units were deployed in the center of the capital. Helicopters bombed the crowd with tear gas, stun grenades and stun grenades.
▪️ At about 8 p.m., military police units recaptured all occupied buildings and cleared the city's squares of protesters.
▪️ As of 8:40 p.m., the federal government reported that 400 protesters had been detained. 46 rioters suffered injuries of varying degrees of severity.
🔻Brazilian Authorities’ Reaction
▪️ At 5:50 p.m. local time, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio da Silva, who took office Jan. 1, addressed the nation. He first called the rioters “communists” but quickly corrected this to "fascists fanatics" and promised to find and punish not only the rioters, but also their sponsors (Lula is communist).
▪️ Based on Article 34 of the constitution, Lula announced a federal intervention in the Federal District until January 31, 2023, a special force operation to maintain law and order involving the army and police.
This regime allows law enforcement forces to detain citizens without investigation, as well as seize the property and accounts of individuals and businesses, vehicles and real estate.
▪️ Later, Supreme Court Justice Alessandre de Moraes suspended the governor of the Federal District by his decision. According to the court's version, the forces of law and order in Brasilia not only did not resist, but also drove the protesters. The head of security of the Federal District also lost his position.
🔻The Reaction of the International Community
▪️ Soon after the riots began, the presidents of every regional leader from Chile to Venezuela to Mexico announced their support for the Brazilian government.
▪️ The U.S. government, which has once again become Brazil's geopolitical allies, also supported the Lula administration. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken called the riots "an attack on the presidency," and Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan called them "an attempt to undermine democracy."
▪️ In Russia, the first to comment on the January 8 events was Federation Council Vice-Speaker Konstantin Kosachev: in his opinion, the riots were a "strange and senseless putsch to nowhere." The politician also noted that Bolsonaro himself prudently disavowed the protests.
🔻What Happens Next
▪️ Depending on the true organizers of the riots, the main beneficiaries will be those who, at first glance, appear to be the victims — President Lula da Silva, the National Congress and the Supreme Court.
▪️ Further events will follow the scenario of the U.S. Capitol attack 2 years ago. They will include trials of the most active vandals, public discrediting of the opposition, and a "witch hunt."
▪️ The condemnation of the Bolsonarists' actions would be fertile ground for strengthening cooperation between the Lula administration and center-right forces in Congress.
▪️ Law enforcement will be empowered to disperse the remaining Bolsonarist encampments in the capital and other cities, burying the protest wave.
▪️ Jair Bolsonaro's supporters in the streets from the agro-industrial and commercial sectors will face a forced redistribution of capital.
▪️ The Brazilian Supreme Court will receive new powers to impose order, especially in the area of censorship and control of social networks. Facebook moderators have already started to do the same.
▪️ There will be a major purge of unreliable officials. Similar to the governor of Brasilia, who was formerly a political ally of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The personnel reshuffle will also affect the security bloc, which does not have Lula's trust.
▪️ The political figure of Jair Bolsonaro, who has been vilified as the new leader of the opposition, will become too toxic for former allies. Like Donald Trump in the United States, Bolsonaro will face charges of rioting, and his future career will be in question.
The revolt in Brasilia was not only the apogee of disillusionment with the political system and dissatisfaction with the return to power of Luiz "Lula" Inácio da Silva, but also a precondition for the latter's consolidation of power within the country.
Lula had planned to begin his presidential term with active foreign policy work - including within BRICS and as an intermediary in the dialogue between Russia and Ukraine. Now the new president of Brazil will have to concentrate on domestic policy.
Our Perspective
We are seeing patterns of a group known as Antifa throughout this protest - we can say this as we have been following Antifa since Trump’s Presidency and they have a playbook from which they will not deviate. They are not a brilliant lot and are highly insecure, no matter what part of the globe - which means they have to have something to follow and permission to do what they do with each protest.
Brazil is not unfamiliar with Antifa, and not surprisingly they are comprised of Lula supporters - criminals and has-been’s who run high off emotions and have very little capacity for critical thinking (as they are everywhere).
It is too early to connect all the dots but this also has the signature of George Soros - not in strategy perhaps, but someone had to pay for all those buses as well as provide financial incentives to the actors.
Which means bank audits would be a good start but don’t count on Moraes to even acknowledge there were paid actors in this protest.
During the 2 elections in October, Bolsonarists - for the most part - displayed a high level of constraint. They know acting out only brings favor, even if only momentarily, to the instigators.
Watching videos that have been made available, we see there are multiple demonstrators that did not participate in the destruction of Planalto Palace.
Most likely we will find multiple Ray Epps in this skirmish - and we will be running video searches to see if we can find the guilty in earlier disruptions during the October elections.
And as with the Unselect Committee of January 6, whatever “investigations” the Lula administration carries out, it will be very biased and full of fakery for all the world to see.
This is far from over - for now, the guilty of the Lula administration have won a battle, but only because they peppered the protest with Antifa characters.
In the end, we highly doubt they will win the war.
Lula is too comfortable with his Central and South American relationships that were already falling apart before he officially took office.
Their - and his - goal is to unify Central and South America so there is one “space” and no nation-states.
And as with his previous term, Lula is building his castle in the air - forgetting entirely about a solid foundation that can hold any castle never mind one full of cracks.